Purpose: The aim of the present study is to identify the factors affecting the future of pension funds and to outline the future scenarios for pension funds in Iran.
Method: This research is applied in terms of its objective and is a documental study in terms of data collection. The research process includes identifying the potential factors and drivers of pension funds in the theoretical framework. In the analysis stage, interviews with experts were conducted to weigh the drivers, which were then analyzed using the MikMak software. Subsequently, the scenarios were developed using the Scenario Wizard software.
Findings: In the first step, 35 factors affecting the future of pension funds in Iran were identified. After an initial refinement, a list of 18 key factors was selected by removing similar drivers and those with weak connections to Iran's future environment. These factors were chosen to analyze cross-effects and measure their importance and uncertainty. According to the results of the study, the future of pension funds is influenced by four main factors: "government capability," "economic shocks," "life expectancy," and "economic sanctions."
Conclusion: The scenario analysis of the present study indicates that the most likely event in the future of pension funds is the increase in life expectancy, which highlights the need to raise the legal retirement age to mitigate the impact of this event on the financial sustainability of the funds. Additionally, the study shows that the government's capacity in the future scenarios is mostly unchanged, which is a logical outcome considering the macroeconomic situation. Finally, the status of economic sanctions and economic shocks differs across the various scenarios. The best-case scenario involves the removal of sanctions and a reduction in economic shocks, but since sanctions are externally driven, the possibility of intensified sanctions must also be considered.