Financial stability analysis of social security pension fund using system dynamics in the time horizon of 1430

Objective: Considering the important role of social security pension fund in development and social welfare of the country, it is necessary to pay attention to its sustainability. Evaluating the sustainability of pension systems is one of the complex issues that cannot be easily studied and analyzed due to the multitude of influencing variables and the change of variables in long-term. The purpose of this article is to analyze the financial stability of the fund in the time horizon of 2051.
Method: In this research, using the information and statistics of the Social Security Organization and predicting the number of insured and pensioners, a model was designed based on system dynamics, and then, the stability of the above pension fund was examined and analyzed by this model. System dynamics is based on three scientific fields of traditional management of social systems, feedback theory and computer simulation, and it is used to investigate and study of various complex feedback systems such as social systems.
Findings: Based on the simulation model of this research, since the beginning of the base year (2016), the organization has been facing a liquidity deficit, and from 2027, the organization's income (difference in expenses from accrual resources) also will be negative, and the upward trend of liquidity deficit will increase rapidly from the beginning of 2036 due to the demographic window closing.
Results: According to the current situation of the organization, there is an urgent need to make parametric or systemic reforms. This model clarifies the internal structure and connections between system components and can play an important role in understanding the consequences of policies proposed by managers and officials.